Head to the Cold Outbreak News link above for the latest updates on approaching, winter cold fronts. General winter observations will stay here.
12-8-08, Tuesday: If you think August has been cold, then you are right. We are currently running at about 3C below average for minimums and around 4C below for maximums. Its not that unusual to still be a bit below the average by mid month as the warmest part of August is usually the last two weeks but to be so far below average is impressively cold. We've actually had four snow days this month in Blackheath but sadly not a lot of settling. Other towns like Guyra to our north and Oberon and Orange to our west have done well with at least a few settled falls this year.
23-7-08, Wednesay 5:35pm: The last two mornings in Blackheath have seen very solid frosts with -3.1C today and -2.9C yesterday morning at my site. My pond froze over on both mornings. In places like 'Frog Hollow' on the western side of town, it could have got down to -5C on both of those nights as the cold air settles there and doesn't drain away as readily overnight. Mt Boyce AWS hasn't recorded temps as cold as my home office site as its on the edge of the escarpment and not in a great position to record very low temperatures overnight, unless of course there is a strong cold front around with snow etc. On cold, still nights, colder temperatures will occur in Blackheath near the local oval where cold air pools readily as well as 'Frog Hollow' and at the bottom of Mt Blackheath etc. Feel free to let me know if you have recorded very cold temps at your place as its interesting to compare. Remember, we are talking about the official temperature about one metre above the ground, not the grass or ground temperature.
21-7-08, Monday 5pm: After June officially recorded 134.6mm (Mt Boyce AWS figures) we have seen quite the opposite in July with just 24.8mm (my rain gauge). June was quite mild for minimums (more than 1C above average) thanks to the amount of rain we had, keeping the frosts away and the day time temperatures were close to average at 10.5C. July so far has seen the minimum temp hover around the long term average and the same for the maximum temps. Cold fronts have not been that strong this season, in spite of the promising early signs in April when lovely snow showers fell. Even the ski fields had a late start with average snow depth still not very high although it is looking pretty nice down there now. Its always hard to predict just how good a snow season will be, especially in the Blue Mountains, where everything has to be just about perfect for snow to fall. The main thing that saves us up this way is our altitude as we are not in a prime position, compared to Oberon, to get fairly regular snowfalls, although as we know, we can have snowy winters at times. There should be some more rain in July to boost our totals and a bit of snow is also a reasonable chance before the end of the month, so lets cross our fingers.
9-6-08, Monday 3pm: 91.1mm has fallen in my home office gauge to 9am this morning, since the start of June. Quite an impressive outcome considering how dry May was. The Sea Surface Anomalies are improving to a warming trend at present and you can see that in this link. There are still some cool anomalies at the time of writing to the east of Australia in the Tasman and also SE of Tassie which are encouraging surface high pressure to settle there. Hopefully these SST anomalies will break down soon to allow more typical frontal activity to reach the SE. Of course, regardless of conducive SST anomalies, you also need weathers systems to be developing, to take advantage of them. A Long Wave Trough (upper level surges of cold air that circle the globe) should hopefully move over Australia soon and this tends to encourage strong frontal patterns. Then of course, there is the chaotic factor that always leaves forecasters scratching their heads, hopefully in wonder and not in disappointment!
4-6-08, Wednesday 11:15am: 56.3mm has fallen in my home office gauge to 9am this morning, since this east coast event started on Sunday afternoon. Of course, exactly where heavier falls occur today and to a lesser extent tomorrow will depend on how the low develops into today. We certainly could get more heavy showers here today and tonight. Sea surface temperatures are becoming warmer in a largish pool off the Sydney coast which is helping this low develop. Further east of this warm body of water, the sea surface temps are still quite cool which is making it hard for cold fronts to move our way as high pressure systems are lingering there.
1-6-08, Sunday 4:35pm: Showers should gradually increase by Tuesday with this system. We could possibly see moderate to heavy showers as the week moves on but that will be dependent on the positioning of the low/trough. At the very least it should be quite damp for the next few days, possibly longer.
31-5-08, Saturday 10:30am: Well, after my previous paragraph, it seems like we could be in for some prolonged shower activity on the east coast of Oz but just how far south this system moves is the discussion point at present. That body of warming water off the coast of Sydney coupled with the upper trough could spark decent shower activity over the Blue Mountains as we move into the new week. Forecast models are unclear on the exact setup at present so the most likely outcome is still about one or two days away in the charts. We should know by Sunday night or Monday morning, as to what this system is likely to do.
27-5-08, Tuesday: It seems that we could be in for a lower than average rainfall pattern for this winter if Sea Surface Temps stay colder than average. We will have to wait and see but a dryish winter with cold mornings looks the mostly likely outcome at this stage. Of course, there will be days of light, showery weather but large rainfall totals are less likely this winter from my perspective unless we see a significant change to warmer SST anomalies. This doesn't mean that we will see no snow of course, as a strong cold front can deliver a few cm of snow even if that doesn't translate to much in the rain gauge. The main thing we need to watch for at present is the breaking down of the usual blocking high patterns that occur in early winter. We need them to weaken to allow fronts through. In the meantime, have a look at this interesting article from sciencedaily.com.
13-5-08, Tuesday 8:30am: Chances are improving of seeing some snow across the Oberon plateau by next Saturday or Sunday and perhaps some snow showers in the upper Blue Mountains. We are just waiting for one or two of the main forecasting models to agree on the timing and strength of this outbreak. Should know by Thursday some time if this event will eventuate.
10-5-08, Saturday 9:30am: Upper level patterns suggest another strong cold front is possible within the next two weeks. The upper level Long Wave Trough predictions suggest a strong surge of cold air around this time but the forecasting models are struggling to interpret this feature as it applies to surface weather patterns at the moment. So, we will have to wait and see for at least another few days, as to whether this front will be strong enough to make it this far north. NB: The volcanic activity in Southern America is becoming quite strong and may also impact on our winter this year by making it cooler than average but that is also not completely clear as yet. Scientists are determining the impacts of this volcano at the present time.
NB: Thanks to those that sent snow photos through. Its always much appreciated, some of them are now uploaded to this Winter 2008 link. You can also view these via the photos link in the menu above. And don't forget to view the 'Chase Reports' link in the menu above too. Such an early start this year!
Update, 5:30pm, 28-4-08: Perhaps the final round of moderately intense sleet and snow occured from about 5pm to 5:20pm here in Blackheath. There could be a bit more but gradually now into the evening the upper temps will warm and the instability will decrease as a result. What a day though, Katoomba could also break its all-time coldest April day record. We will have to see but its looking pretty good at this stage.
Update, 3:20pm, 28-4-08: Another excellent little snowfall at about 2:45pm that lasted for about twenty minutes at the home office but hardly settled as the temp was around 1C. At various points it was almost as heavy as anything you would see in winter. Quite extaordinary.
Update, 2:25pm, 28-4-08: More lovely snow flurries at about 2:10pm that lasted for five minutes. Big thick flakes that covered the sky. This air mass is very cold, not a lot of moisture with it at present but at the 500hPa level its -32C, -12C at 700hPa and about -2C at 850hPa, that is going off the Wagga weather balloon sounding earlier today. I've never seen an air mass that cold in the last ten years or so for April. There could be more snow showers soon and into the evening.
Update, 1:30pm, 28-4-08: Well, we have snow in Blackheath! It only lasted five to ten minutes from about 1:05pm but it was snow nonetheless! Mt Boyce shows the temp at 2.5C at 1pm but it was colder than that here in Blackheath under the cell that produced those snow showers. The relatively dry air at the time also helped the flakes survive in air temps above freezing, this is called the evaporative cooling effect. There are some more showers on the way that could reach us, fingers crossed they bring snow not rain...its touch and go.
Update, 8:45am: There are now some cold air field, convective showers on the sat loop moving towards the Central Tablelands, keep an eye on these today. They will more likely bring snow/sleet or hail for the Oberon Plateau but Blackheath could get lucky.
28-4-08, Monday 8:20am: The lowest temp so far this morning was about 1.5C at 7am with very tiny, spitty precip but no sleet or hail at this time. Wet snow occured at Sunny Corner (The higher ground towards Bathurst) early this morning and there has also been fine sleet and hail there this morning. Whilst its cold at the surface, the cold upper level air is not around this morning to any notable extent so snow in Blackheath is unlikely now but still very slightly possible. Obs here show that it looks to have possibly sleeted between 2am and 3am from what I can tell. Looking at the RH reading at the time at Mt Boyce AWS, shows there could have been a few flakes during this period. 4.9mm since 9am yesterday here at home and currently a fresh breeze and a thin 8/8, low level cover of cloud. It will be interesting to see how cold the day remains. I wasn't surprised to see the min temp go lower than the BoM forecast as I had mentioned this in earlier posts here.
8am today, nice snow flurry at Sunny Corner - click here. - courtesy of 'snowmi' from Weatherzone forums.
Some lovely shots of Thredbo this morning - click here.
27-4-08, Sunday 6pm: This system is very cold but its touch and go whether the coldest air and snow will make it to Blackheath. The Mt Gambier sounding showed the air mass to be -31C at 500hPa, -12C at 700hPa and -2C at 850hPa, that is very cold even for winter so its impressive indeed. Its slowly moving this way and you can see it in the middle of NSW via the sat loop as I type. Snow is still fairly likely over the Oberon plateau late tonight or into early tomorrow and its about a 20% chance for Blackheath by daybreak tomorrow. Family and work commitments prevent me from posting much more at present but fingers crossed for a few flakes.
26-4-08, Saturday 6:30pm: Well, from memory it certainly seems to be the best looking event in April I've observed since internet, weather watching evolved. Have a look at that cold air field on the satellite loop! I'm still a bit disappointed in the upper winds not being very southerly but that is being picky as this system is very good for this time of year. Its hard to realise that its April and not June when this type of event would usually happen.
If the MLAPs forecasting model holds true, we could see nice snow showers here in Blackheath and even a possible settling by early Monday morning. I'd rate snow showers now as a 30% chance and settling snow about a 10% to 15% chance. Its certainly occured in these setups before but it will be touch and go of course for Blackheath as we are downwind of the Oberon Plateau in this sort of event, so most of the moisture is gone by the time systems make it to us. Those cold upper temperatures need to make it this far north for snow to happen (aided by decent upper level winds) otherwise the best of this system will blow out to sea to our south before it gets to us. To sum up, a 30% chance of seeing snow flurries in Blackheath by Monday morning early and a 10% to 15% chance of seeing settling snow, not a bad percentage though for April.
26-4-08, Saturday 8:30am: Not much time this morning for a detailed update, so I will do that later today but its looking even a bit better now, going off the current charts. The main areas that will see snow showers by very late Sunday or early Monday are places out Oberon way above 1000 to 1100 metres but Blackheath might see some flurries if the cold air slides across. We wont get much here in Blackheath at this stage but nice snow flurries are about a 25% chance. More updates from me later today.
25-4-08, Friday 5:20pm (update): You can clearly see this approaching cold front now on the satellite loop, quite impressive. By tomorrow some time, I should be able to get a handle on how cold it actually is in real-time via the weather balloon soundings. I would now rate it about a 10% to 20% chance of seeing snow flurries in Blackheath by very late Sunday or early Monday morning. Don't be fooled by the minimum forecast of 5C for Katoomba on Monday though because if the cold air slides across from the Oberon area, we could get some surprise snow flurries. The more likely outcome though would be for Oberon to see snow showers and places like Shooters Hill even more so.
The upper level winds look to remain quite westerly at our lattitude which doesn't help the cold air get transported up this way for any length of time. We need those upper winds at the 300hPa level to be more southerly so cold air from the southern lattitudes can feed into this system and keep it unstable and produce decent snow but that is a hard ask in April. With this particular system, the Oberon Plateau area is more exposed to these cold south westerlies and they should see some snow out that way at this stage and even Orange could see something. The ski fields should also do quite well by Monday.
24-4-08, Thursday 8:30am: There does seem to be general agreement now with most of the forecasting models suggesting this approaching cold front will pass just to our south. The upper (300hPa) winds are pretty westerly now as this system moves across the SE (We need them to be much more southerly) and this reduces the amount of cold air introduced and re-introduced into this system from the south as it heads our way.
Still, the bullish forecaster in me (the bear is still there too) suggests that it wouldn't take much change for this system to give us something this far north but it would be short lived if the upper winds stay more westerly as they are forecast to be.
I am keeping an eye on that trough/low off the east coast of NSW at the moment. It will probably be gone or weakening at least by the time this cold front approaches on Sunday/Monday but I am just wondering how its presence today and tomorrow will influence the forecasting models by tonight. So, probably no snow for the Blue Mountains out of this front on Sunday/Monday but Oberon or higher areas south of it might see a flake or two. Things can change quickly to a more positive and snowy outcome though, so lets wait and see what the charts say in a day or two.
21-4-08, Monday 8:30am: A quite strong cold front is predicted by the forecasting models to reach the Blue Mountains by around Sunday the 27th of April. This could potentially bring snow to the Oberon Plateau and maybe a few flakes in the Blue Mountains but its very early days and anything could happen at this stage. Once we get within 48 hours of the actual event, we will have a clearer picture of its potential. Due to family circumstances, I am not able to post too often at the moment but if this front looks the goods by later in the week, I will endeavour to make another post or two.
2-4-08, Wednesday Midday: This approaching front is looking quite strong for early April. There should be some snow across the ski fields later today and by early tomorrow. There is still a slight chance that some sleet or snow could make it to Shooters Hill (see map above) later tonight or early tomorrow. Keep an eye on the IR satellite loop to see if any cold air convective cells make it this far north. Even if its cold enough at the surface out at Shooters Hill this will not give us much icy precip at all unless the upper level temps are particularly cold as well, to create instability. Fingers crossed. The upper Blue Mountains will probably only see cloud increasing with the chance of light spitty rain at best but of course there is a very slight chance we could see snow but its unlikely at this stage. I will update this outlook if time permits.
31-3-08, Monday 9am: Probably not worthy of a detailed analysis just yet but there is a slight chance of a flurry or two over the highest parts of the CT come late Wednesday. I'm talking about areas around Oberon, not the Blue Mountains as such.
Spots above 1200 to 1300 on the Oberon Plateau could see some light sleet or soggy snow but its hard to get much more than that at this time of the year. Forecasting model charts like the GFS upper level charts show us why with most of the cold air and instability staying well south of here. Don't expect to see cold air Cbs dropping snow across the backs of shivering sheep up here, more like weakish, de-activating strato-cumulus clouds with the odd flake at best at this stage.
As usual though, the vagaries of real-time system development will fill in the details beyond model resolution as we move along. I'll try and fill in any details as they come to hand, if time permits, as I am particuarly busy at present.
22-3-08, Saturday Midday: The link below has an interesting article on global warming or the lack of it in recent years, according to Jennifer Marohasy, a biologist and senior fellow with the Institute of Public Affairs. She states, when asked about Global warming in recent years: "No, actually, there has been cooling, if you take 1998 as your point of reference. If you take 2002 as your point of reference, then temperatures have plateaued. This is certainly not what you'd expect if carbon dioxide is driving temperature because carbon dioxide levels have been increasing but temperatures have actually been coming down over the last 10 years." Read more for yourself here
7-3-08, Friday Midday: The chance of storms later today has now increased to about 40%. A developing trough could produce some storms across the mountains by afternoon or evening. With a fairly unstable atmosphere and dry mid levels, hail could be a feature. Keep an eye on the latest warnings.
6-3-08, Thursday 8pm: Its amazing how we humans are so easily influenced by the weather. After our particularly chilly February many folk have been saying that an early winter is on the way. In reality, that was never really much of a chance, well certainly not in March anyway. Nature blessed us this week with some lovely days that has taken our maximum temps just above average for the first six days of March. Its now possible that the next two weeks wont see too much rain at all and Sydney could well see temps stay in the high twenties to low thirties for a week or more. The upper mountains should stay in the low to mid twenties for the next week with just the chance of a shower on the odd occasion throughout the week.
29-2-08, Friday 8:30pm: Well, it appears Katoomba has broken its all time record for February minimums with a 3.9C this morning. The previous record was 4.1 set in 1996 on the 13th. With 73 years of records for temperatures, that is pretty impressive in a world where 'Global Warming seems to be the only description of climate these days. Mount Boyce's record for Feb is -0.7C so we got no-where near that but this record seems incorrect. I will look into this further as time permits.
29-2-08, Friday 8:30am: 3.5C at my station early this morning, that is pretty impressive chill for this time of the year. Not quite a record (although the jury is still out on that) as we may have had a few colder, late February days over the decades but most of those would have been on calm, clear nights. Considering that last night was breezy and cloudy, it was an impressive cold summers night for sure. Its much harder to get chilly temps in summer when there is a fresh wind blowing and overcast conditions.
27-2-08, Wednesday 11am: Some intense storms hit the Blue Mountains yesterday thanks to a significant upper trough moving through. This enhanced surface instability and produced a nasty storm in the Bilpin area. Hail was intense there and covered the roads for a time, causing damage to orchards in this region. Hail size was up to 3cm, so it was the intensity rather than the size of the hail that appears to have done the damage. Further storms could occur today as the atmosphere is particularly unstable. Keep an eye on the warnings link on the main page as the day progresses.
26-2-08, Tuesday 10:30am: Well, finally a bit of warmth over the weekend and Monday to bring back those very cool average temps just a little. Still, numerous stations across the state are running notably below average for maximum temps for the month and to a lesser extent minimums. Some of these sites could well produce all time records for low maximum temps. Of course, these records only go back decades, not hundreds of years so they should all be viewed in that context.
Many folk have been asking me if winter is going to be cold. Its always hard to say at this time of the year and a chilly summer is not statistically connected to a very cold winter. Ken Ring, a somewhat controversial figure in the weather world, is suggesting a cold, snowy winter for the SE of Australia with snowfalls starting in April and persisting into December. Ken's approach is quite different to conventional methods and a careful study of his predictions produces more questions for me than answers. Verification methods by some reputable meteorologists have shown that Ken's approach is basically the same as guessing. Considerable time has been spent studying Ken's approach and there just isn't any clear indication that his methods are sound. Still, in fairness to Ken, the idea of cycles in the weather has validity of course but to suggest the moon has such intimate and predictable connections with our weather is questionable in my opinion. Type 'Predict Weather' and 'Ken Ring' into Google if you are interested in reading more about Ken. You can also head over to ski.com.au and read a thorough review of Ken's methodology; type 'Ken Ring' into the search function of the forums there and read the views of forum member 'Conservative Forecaster', a well respected and very well researched meteorologist.
The best winters for snow seem to be the ones with a SOI around neutral (although, consistently low to medium positive readings are my favourite) but you don't want readings too high as this can produce more rain than snow. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Bight and south of there are also important in my opinion. You want them to be around average. Too warm to the south of Australia and lows may form there rather than into the Bight. If SST anomalies are too warm SW of Perth this can also produce lows near the SW of the continent rather than over the SE of Oz. Of course, we first need cold pools of air to reach north into Australia to interact with sea surface temps before we get any decent fronts. Don't let anyone fool you into believing this next winter will be a very snowy and cold one. Winters are just too fickle in Australia to reliably predict. We will have a rough idea by later in May but sadly that is about as good as it gets.
13-2-08, Wednesday 4:30pm: If you are wondering where summer has gone, you are not the only one. Presently in Blackheath we are running around 4.5C below average for maximums in February although minimums are only one degree below normal. You could argue that lower than average maximum temps are more noticeable than chilly minimum temps as they persist throughout the waking hours. The rain has certainly been a factor but there has also been plenty of cloudiness and onshore coolness. December and January were also mild and a little below average but not as much as February. Katoomba values are similar to Blackheath for Feb and for the rest of summer as well.
Even Sydney has had notably mild weather for summer with the most significant impact in the west, where hot to very hot days have been rare. Penrith for example has hardly had a day in the mid to high thirties all summer and they are running at around 5C below average for maximum temps for February. Quite extraordinary. If you have a look at the SST link under Forecasting Material on the main page, you will see that the SST have been notably warmer than average across the east coast. This tends to encourage cloudiness and precipitation across the east coast, which will be exacerbated if there is instability like a trough or low near the coast. I would like to think there could still be some hot weather this month or into early March but average max temps naturally start to drop off now as we slide towards autumn, so the chances are not too high for any major heat waves.
There are calls that such a cool summer will bring a cold winter but the two are not usually related. At this stage the La Nina pattern we are currently in should continue for at least a couple of months and it could indeed persist into winter. It would be nice for it to weaken a little by winter as strong La Ninas tend to bring plenty of rain but less snow, which is not what the ski fields want after last year.
8-2-08, Friday 2pm: Some quite heavy bursts of shower activity last evening produced 22.5mm to 9am today in my gauge with Mount Boyce only getting 14.2mm. Various spots in Sydney were also hit with even more impressive storms as the southerly change interacted with the upper trough. Check out this dangerously close lightning footage from YouTube below, taken by our friends at East Coast Storms. Filming and photographing storms can be a dangerous exercise, so unless you know what you are doing, take cover instead. Here's the YouTube Lightning Strike Footage. Don't have your speakers turned up too loud and the strike hits at 44 seconds into the video, so be prepared! I've experienced this sort of thing myself a few times, very frightening.
6-2-08, Wednesday 8:45am: Severe storm potential is certainly there for us today although areas further north are the greater chance of this. If you have a look at the BoM sat loop you will see the interplay between the surface trough and upper trough already, which is impressive for this time of the day. Usually it takes a bit longer into the day for things to kick into gear as more heat is introduced into the equation. That upper trough is significant! Hail, possibly large, and also damaging winds could be a feature in SE QLD and NE NSW. The Blue Mountains could also cop it later on today so take all the usual precautions when severe weather is potentially there. I'd say about a 40 to 50% chance of storms for our area later and about a 20% chance of a severe storm, ie: hail larger than 2cm, winds over 90kph and flash flooding.
4-2-08, Monday 6pm: Some very good rain in the last 24 hours with more than 50mm from my gauge. Blackheath tends to get more rainfall than Mount Boyce AWS in these conditions as the escarpment to our east will force the moist air up and over the township. This then concentrates and enhances uplift, which will bring heavier rainfall to town, especially to areas closest to the Grose Valley. It could get even heavier tonight with a low pressure system likely to develop off the coast. Depending on exactly how and where it moves overnight will be reflected in local rainfall totals overnight and into tomorrow. Thanks to the steady trickle of 'hello' emails I've received over recent weeks, its always appreciated. :-)
31-1-08, Thursday 8:30am: A number of storms converged on Blackheath at around 4pm yesterday. I'm not sure I've ever seen mammatus cloud coming in from so many directions as I did yesterday. Huge anvils were rolling in from the SW, W and NW and with them came some strong cloud to ground lightning strikes. A blackout occured in town for around three hours before power was restored around 7:15pm. No hail of note was evident and only 9.5mm was recorded in my gauge. Other areas may have had much more intense activity, please let me know if you heard of more severe storms in the area as its always good to record such things.
We have a very unstable atmosphere again today and with the slightly stronger mid level winds, we could see more widespread severe storms today. The Sydney basin has a better chance of seeing something this afternoon. Heavy showers, strong winds and hail could all be features this afternoon so be prepared; unplug as many electrical items as possible if you are away from the home or office this afternoon.
29-1-08, Tuesday 6:30pm: A quite powerful storm hit Blackheath at around 4pm today. Hail to 2cm in size (but mostly 1 to 1.5cm) fell quite intensely although it melted fairly fast thanks to the short, powerful bursts of rain. Some wonderful cloud to cloud and cloud to ground lightning occured and 13mm was recorded in my gauge in southern Blackeath during the storm. The upper levels weren't very cold at all but surface temps were quite high (near 30C) so this helped produce good instability. It seems Mount Boyce AWS recorded nothing at all. This may have been due to a problem with hail in the tipping bucket but more likely because the storm came in from the SW and moved NE, missing Mt Boyce altogether. It could get stormy again tomorrow but Thursday at this stage is looking more promising and indeed could produce severe storms.
29-1-08, Tuesday 9:30am: There is about a 50% to 60% chance of more rainfall in the form of storms by around Thursday for the Blue Mountains. Severe storms could also occur at this time but that will become clearer by Thursday morning, when the weather balloon, upper air sounding is available. There is also about a 20% to 30% chance that an isolated storm may pop up later today, a bit like yesterdays storm to our north.
14-1-08, Monday 9:10am: Some good storms passed over Blackheath yesterday afternoon and evening. Quite a few lightning strikes and some very close ones at that. No hail observed here except for a few small bits of ice now and then. My gauge in southern Blackheath recieved roughly double what the Mt Boyce AWS did, just a few kilometres to the north. 14.5mm to 9am this morning here with light drizzle continuing. There's a slight chance of more storms today but Wednesday looks the next good day at this stage.
2-1-08, Wednesday 8:15pm: Happy New Year to all those that visit Blackheath Weather! Well, I was a little off target with my predictions of cool to mild weather as it has been glorious of late. The complex low off the coast of QLD caused NE winds for our area rather than easterly or south easterly winds so it has been generally warm of late. Cloudiness and some drizzle or rain should gradually develop over coming days and maybe also some storms later in the peace. For those that are interested, our backyard pond has benefitted well from the good rains in November and December. There are roughly 200 eastern froglet tadpoles and hundreds of freshly laid pobblebonk eggs as well. There are also around 50 White Cloud Mountain Minnows from the orginal 10 put in the pond about two months ago. These little fish are good for ponds as they don't usually eat tadpoles or frog eggs but devour mosquito larvae. Of course, its always important to make sure your pond or dam has no drainage points into local creeks to prevent non native fish breeding locally.
28-12-07, Friday 9:15am: Hope everyone had a good Christmas. It looks like this very cool December will continue with average maximum temps currently around 3C below the long term average. With the onshore pattern set to continue, we are in for more mild to warm days this week and not much real heat. Still, we have been 'spoilt' for years with some very warm and dry summers up here so whilst it is cool and damp at present, the waterfalls and fernery etc are looking amazing. There will be sunny days of course but the general trend will be for more stormy days followed by misty ones!
22-12-07, Saturday 4:07pm: A pretty impressive frontal system indeed with excellent rainfall across numerous parts of western NSW. My gauge recorded 13.3mm to 9am this morning with some brief and moderately intense showers since then. You can see the cool air, convective field now moving into NSW which will guarantee a chilly morning tomorrow, with a minimum temp quite likely to be in single figures. There is a chance of some showers tomorrow but it shouldn't be too much.
21-12-07, Friday 1:30pm: A particularly strong frontal system is heading across the SE of Australia over the next twenty four hours. Strong winds, hail and intense shower activity could all be features of this system. For the upper mountains the weather will start to close in later today with possible heavy rain, strong winds and maybe hail. Keep an eye on the latest warnings on the main page.
14-12-07, Friday 9am: Well after a damp week and indeed a damp month or so, we are now in for some brief respite. A day or two of relatively fine weather is in store before the unsettled weather returns by about Sunday.
9-12-07, Sunday 8pm: A powerful looking storm passed over Blackheath some time after 2pm but only produced small hail and light rain as it was still developing. This storm may well have been related to the severe storm that formed across western Sydney - I haven't checked radar archives as yet - it brought large hail to my relatives house in Seven Hills. Head to the photos link above to view hail up to 7cm in diameter!
7-12-07, Friday 9:15am: Another day where the atmosphere is primed for some explosive development across the central ranges and indeed in other places too. Directional shear is reasonable throughout the layers and speed shear in the steering levels is also okay so even Sydney should see storms later. Add to this the healthy CAPE figures combined with lifted indexes well into the negatives and we have an environment ready for action. As usual, storms are scattered so not every town or area will see them but be warned, it could get a bit nasty later on. The weekend is also shaping up as a stormy time.
3-12-07, Monday 9:05am: Well, the atmosphere is primed for instability today across the central tablelands. Probably the only ingredient that isn't really strong is mid level wind shear, so storms will be more focussed on the ranges rather than in Sydney. Still, the city is a reasonable chance of seeing storms later today. Across the Blue Mountains we could see flash flooding, strong winds and possibly hail later this afternoon. As always, storms are isolated pockets of instability so not every area will see something. Regardless, its definitely a day to unplug your electrical equipment if you are away from the home or office for extended periods. And don't park your car under a gum tree!
3-12-07, Monday 9am: 305.3mm from my home office site was the November rainfall total in Blackheath. 290.8mm was the total from Mt Boyce AWS but this station missed at least one day due to a possible lightning strike and sadly this missed data can never be retrieved. In comparison, more records from Wombat Street in Blackheath show a total of 345mm for November. Even without considering the missing data from Mount Boyce, its still common to have varying rainfall figures over relatively small areas, especially in spring and summer. As we know, storms can be hit and miss and bring heavier showers to one spot and much less to another. Maximum November temps for my area at 19.5C were 0.2C below the average and our average minimum was 11C which was 1.5C above the average. This November also recorded the highest monthly rainfall ever for November at Mt Boyce (290.8mm) although its important to remember this is a short terms obs site that only dates back to the late 1980s.
1-12-07, Saturday 8am: Some extraordinary falls this month have left us with more than 300mm from my gauge for November. That is pretty rare up this way. The town is so green and the waterfalls are heavy. As time permits I will provide more details of the accumulations.