Notes
Winter 2008:
Wednesday 20-8-08, 5:20 pm:
A strong front is due in by Friday and at this stage it is looking quite good for snow but we need to see how the upper cold pool combines with the surface patterning. Its looking like snow above about 1000 metres but this slightly unusual setup is still not that clear in the charts. All we can do is wait and see how it pans out. The models are not all agreeing at present.
It has been a bit disappointing this year for we Blue Mountains folk, as far as settled snow is concerned. We do tend to remember the good years and forget the not so good years. There has been a number of years in my records, where not much snow has fallen. Even during our colder climate of the 1950s and 1960s there were lean snow years. Fingers crossed we get lucky soon. Those anomously cold sea surface temperatures off the east coast are not making it easy for snow bearing systems to reach our area. That's certainly part of the problem this year.
Thanks for the friendly emails, I do appreciate it, this site takes up a fair bit of my spare time. I'm sorry that I can't answer them all personally as it would leave me no time to work on the website.
NB: The forecasts and outlooks above are informal considerations presented by blackheathweather.com. Please refer to the main page for official BoM forecasts.
Debunk The Myth
I often hear it said in Blackheath that we didn't get snow because it was too windy. There is no scientific basis to this at all. Its just that most cold fronts come from a SW direction and are usually windy and bring more snow to the Oberon Plateau than they do to the Blue Mountains. Its not because its too windy that we don't get snow its because we are downwind of the Oberon Plateau and during most cold fronts they 'steal' most of our snow. Without wind, the cold air from down south wouldn't get here in the first place. So snow lovers, tell your mates that its not the wind that prevents the Blue Mountains from getting snow at all, its the Oberon Plateau in most situations.
NB: We still can get nice snowfalls from the SW but you need cold upper levels (at least minus 27C at 500hPa) and good mid level moisture at 700hPa to create a nice moist and unstable mix. Don't forget it was very windy from the SW during the 19-6-07 fall and cold upper level air and good moisture in the lower levels was the reason we got such good snow.
